Delivering his first major foreign policy speech on Monday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy repeated his opposition to Turkey's joining the European Union, but said that accession talks with Ankara should go ahead. At the same time, he suggested that the EU should convene a committee of 10 "wise men" to think about how the union should be composed in 2020.

 

In the speech, he also called on the European Union to adopt a more unified and bolder security strategy. He suggested that he might support Germany's bid to be secure a seat on the United Nations Security Council. He also chided Russia for using a "certain brutality" in its political use of energy supplies, and he urged the international community to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear arms.

Sarkozy will have a greater opportunity to voice his opinions about the EU next year when France assumes the six-month rotating EU presidency.

In their responses, German editorials generally pointed out that France's vision for itself in the EU might be larger than the role appropriate for a mid-sized power. A number also criticized Sarkozy's style as a bit strident and suggested that he still had a few things to learn about international diplomacy.

In an editorial entitled "Rambo in the Elysée," the business daily Handelsblatt writes:

"The more poorly he speaks about certain things, the more seriously he takes himself. The speech that the head of state formulated yesterday was simply a manifold claim for French leadership, both in Europe and across the globe. The EU should formulate a security strategy under French leadership and one that will also reform NATO. Under Sarkozy's personal leadership, the UN Security Council should find solutions in September for the crisis areas of Africa."

"But despite this show of omnipresence, Sarkozy has also learnt some lessons. He has had to accept, against his will, that the accession talks with Turkey are going to go ahead. The troublesome reality of France's mid-sized power when it comes to foreign policy will catch up with this president, too."

The conservative daily Die Welt writes:

"The aim is clear: With the help of a strong EU, which will be led decisively by France, Paris wants to assert itself as a player on the global stage. One can interpret his attempt to extend the European Union toward Africa as an answer to Germany's increased influence following its reunification and EU expansion. The desire to secure a place for Germany on the Security Council belongs to the realm of rhetoric. It will stir the Germans up, but in the end it won't lead to anything."

"In Paris, nothing has changed -- or almost nothing. In one area Sarkozy is making some adjustments: He is working hard to improve France's relationship with the US, which was so strained under Chirac. If his plan works out, he will benefit the entire West."

The left-leaning Tageszeitung writes:

"Sarkozy's verbal support for a permanent seat for Germany on the UN Security Council rings hollow and will at best provoke a pained smile in Berlin."

"Sarkozy demonstrated a few weeks ago just how lacking in credibility his demand for a 'strong Europe' in terms of foreign policy is. When it came to the freeing of the Bulgarian nurses from Libyan incarceration, Sarkozy was merely following French economic interests."

 

"It would all be merely posturing and hot air coming out of the Elysée Palace were it not for Sarkozy's new pre-condition for resuming EU accession talks with Turkey. In this way, he should meet opposition to Turkish membership of the EU."

 

"Merkel cannot express her opposition as clearly and publicly as Sarkozy in deference to the other positions within the ruling coalition as well as to the large (and partially voting) Turkish population in Germany."

The center-left Berliner Zeitung writes:

"(With his speech) Sarkozy freed even himself from the illusion that he is strong and consistent. Now he is just feeble and volatile like all the others. Now you can say that the disappointed have themselves to blame because they believed in the unbelievable. The joke is that it's always going to work that way, because people always want to believe that there is somebody who will be able to change everything and because people actually usually disappoint themselves with their grand pledges."

"In his inaugural speech, incidentally, Nicolas Sarkozy spoke mostly about devoting his foreign policy efforts toward the Mediterranean. Now he says that the development of Europe is his absolute priority. Now, to combine both of these ideas, that would be something interesting."

The Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"Sarkozy's style is so refreshing, but he will fail as a foreign minister if he really thinks he can force things. Domestically, within the French political system, it is possible to assert oneself in a dispute. When it comes to foreign policy, a mid-sized power like France will only have influence if it follows the rules of diplomacy: set your priorities and have staunch allies."

"Sarkozy does not follow these rules, and a clear path is not recognizable. The only thing that is clear is that France will embroil itself in many international conflicts under his leadership. To what end is unclear, unless of course it is just about gratifying Sarkozy's craving for recognition. With refreshing clarity, the president has distanced himself from Russia and China. At the same time, he is trying to dispel the impression, which he brought about himself, that France's foreign policy will be closer to that of the United States."

"Sarkozy wants to completely realign the EU so that accession talks with Turkey meet his conditions. He will have to learn that European politics don't work that way. Regarding his idea to make the EU a strong player in global security politics, he will soon have to learn this lesson: Several of his EU partners will quickly rebuff the New Guy in Paris and his plan."

-- Josh Ward, 4:15 p.m. CET

 

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Angela Merkel is more popular now than any German chancellor since the end of World War II, according to a new opinion poll which puts her mid-term approval rating at a record 76 percent. The figure is impressive because after a couple of years in office, leaders often see their popularity hit by by broken campaign promises and dashed hopes.

 

The poll by the Emnid institute for Bild am Sonntag newspaper showed that only 21 percent of respondents want a change of government. "Such positive ratings for a German government leader half-way through the term have never been recorded before," Emnid director Klaus-Peter Schöppner told the paper. "People admire how Merkel stands her ground in the world of Bush, Putin and Sarkozy."

After two years leading Germany, Merkel is as uncharismatic as she ever was, and her low-key style of government couldn't be more different from that of her media-savvy and vain predecessor Gerhard Schröder. Germans have evidently warmed to the sober, understated approach that almost lost her the 2005 general election.

There's nothing showy about her. One of the most enduring images of Schröder, taken by star photographer Peter Lindbergh, shows him posing in a "Brioni" cashmere coat for a fashion magazine.

Merkel's public image, by contrast, is best summed up by a chance snapshot taken of her in a central Berlin supermarket a few weeks ago by a fellow shopper. It was published in tabloid Bild Zeitung and shows her gathering up her groceries like any normal person rushing home after work. Her press office will have been delighted at this picture of Germany's hardworking, unpretentious leader.

 

Analysts say she owes her popularity to the combination of that ordinariness and her apparent skill at global diplomacy that earned her the title "Miss World" in the tabloid press after she hosted the G-8 summit in June.

 

"She's credible and people have faith in her, they like the way she handles herself in public," Bernhard Wessels, political scientist at Berlin's Free University, told SPIEGEL ONLINE.

Luck and Cunning

But it's not just her image. A combination of pure luck and undeniable political cunning has helped boost Merkel's popularity.

Her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) are getting the credit for Germany's economic recovery over the last two years even though they have had little to do with it. The upturn, like most German booms, has been fuelled by surging world demand for just the type of goods Germany specializes in -- plant and machinery.

Painful welfare reforms enacted by the previous Social Democrat-led government in 2003 and 2004 are now helping to boost growth. Ironically, those welfare cuts are still sapping support for the SPD, which is failing to preserve its own left-wing identity in Merkel's consensus-driven "grand coalition" of CDU and SPD.

In fact, Merkel has avoided tackling reforms that would cause voters real pain. Keen to please voters ahead of important regional elections in 2008, her CDU has overtaken the SPD on the left with popular proposals such as higher benefits for families with children, higher unemployment benefits and more money for students.

As a result, the CDU remains just under 40 percent in opinion polls while the SPD is languishing at around 25 percent. "I don't understand this any more," said SPD leader Kurt Beck, perplexed at the conservative shift to the left. SPD Labor Minister Franz Müntefering recently demanded "a little more honesty from the conservatives."

 

SPD in Trouble

 

"The SPD is in a classic mid-term slump, voters seem to resent it for making compromises with the CDU," said Wessels. "In addition, Merkel has made a clever strategic move by embracing climate protection. That will appeal to left-wing liberal and environmentally-minded voters. There hasn't been much real reform, but most voters don't care about that anyway, they see the last round of welfare cuts under the SPD as the root of all evil."

Merkel's success means her position within the CDU is now unchallenged. Potentional rivals are fading, like Hesse premier Roland Koch, who faces a tough regional election in January, or Bavarian Governor Edmund Stoiber, who is stepping down in September after an internal party revolt against him.

Meanwhile the SPD is compounding its problems by quarrelling publicly over who should lead it into the 2009 election. Some in the party regard Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a gray but efficient troubleshooter, as a more suitable candidate than current SPD leader Beck, a bear-like, back-slapping old-school Social Democrat who has failed so far to make his mark on the party.

With Merkel's image as "Miss World" fading fast -- she handed the six-month presidency of the European Union to Portugal at the end of June and her one-year presidency of the G8 ends in December -- she is switching her focus back to domestic politics to carry her through to the 2009 general election.

Cabinet Conference to Set Agenda

She has called a cabinet conference for this Thursday and Friday in a baroque palace in the village of Meseberg, 70 kilometers north of Berlin, to discuss policy for the remainder of the government's term. Topping the agenda will be a 30-point climate protection plan that includes measures to boost energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources as well as cutting CO2 emissions from motor vehicles, industry, public buildings and private homes.

Some of the measures are unpopular with business leaders and energy consumers because of the cost increases they will entail, but Merkel reiterated in a weekend interview that she is serious about tackling climate change.

 

"We mustn't automatically regard every measure to protect the environment as a burden on the economy," she told Bild am Sonntag in an interview published on Sunday. "Doing nothing for the environment can cause enormous economic damage."

 

Other issues on the wide-ranging agenda at Meseberg include the social and labor market policy, a proposed employee fund allowing workers to have a share in company profits, controversial plans to protect German industry from foreign investors, Germany's mission in Afghanistan and whether to build a "Transrapid" magnetic levitation rail link for Munich airport.

Reliably Dull

The SPD for its part is pushing for a national minimum wage and is heading for at least partial success at Meseberg, where the cabinet is expected to agree to minimum rates for postal workers.

So what do the next two years hold for German politics? Based on Merkel's term so far, here's one prediction that may fill journalists with dread: No scandals, no emergence of any charismatic personalities, and no major reforms bar green policies and a bit of tinkering with the welfare system here and there. Opinion polls indicate that voters will reward Merkel for sparing them pain. So in 2009, she may well find herself at the helm of a another CDU-SPD coalition for another four years.

"At this point I don't know what is going to stop Merkel and we may well get another grand coalition," said Wessels. "It's a shame because grand coalitions aren't good for the political scene. You need the rivalry between the two large political camps to keep politics alive."

Par Jean-Michel Quillardet, Avocat à la cour, grand maître du Grand Orient de France.

 

Si l'on ne peut que partager l'objectif de tout gouvernement quant au respect de la paix publique, la répression des atteintes à l'ordre public et la résorption de la délinquance, nous pouvons, par contre, nous inquiéter d'une réorientation de l'ensemble de notre système judiciaire tendant à en bouleverser l'équilibre en le fondant uniquement sur la punition, thérapie soi-disant nécessaire à l'apaisement des peurs collectives.

Sous l'influence de la philosophie des Lumières, le système judiciaire français avait auparavant consacré le regard humaniste que l'institution judiciaire devait porter sur la société et à l'égard de ses déviants.

Quelles sont en effet les causes de la délinquance ?

Chacun le sait, il y a des causes qui tiennent à la nature humaine et qui ne peuvent être expliquées que par des psychiatres : il s'agit là de troubles graves de la liberté et de la volonté qui ne seront jamais extirpés par l'exemplarité de la répression puisque ces délinquances, pour la plupart sexuelles, sont chevillées au coeur d'un certain nombre d'hommes qui ne peuvent maîtriser leurs instincts et leurs pulsions.

 

Une autre cause est incontestablement sociétale : on ne s'interroge plus, aujourd'hui, sur cette inégalité constante et flagrante entre l'argent facile distribué à flot et ce faible pécule gagné à la sueur de son front.

Des millions d'euros gagnés sur un coup de Bourse, reçus tous les mois comme salaire parce que l'on dirige une entreprise ou que l'on est, souvent par le hasard de l'existence, une vedette de la télévision ou du cinéma et un smic, pas encore à 1 500 euros, que des millions d'hommes et de femmes s'évertuent tous les jours à gagner ! Quand une société met au coeur de la sociabilité la réussite par le fric, ne nous étonnons pas alors que certains pour réussir aillent jusqu'à l'acte délictueux. Certes, il faut combattre les mafias, les réseaux de trafic de stupéfiant, de la traite humaine et du proxénétisme et il faut les sanctionner. Mais cela ne constitue pas le lot commun de la délinquance qui encombre les chambres correctionnelles et les tribunaux de grande instance.

Il y a bien des causes sociales, des causes liées à l'intégration, liées aussi au fait que l'ascenseur social ne fonctionne plus et que progresser dans la société aujourd'hui est de plus en plus difficile.

Ce n'est pas en enfermant, en sanctionnant et en punissant que cette délinquance diminuera. Bien au contraire : chacun sait que la prison, notamment pour les jeunes, est criminogène et qu'elle enfermera un peu plus dans le cycle de la déviance sociale. Faire croire au public que la fermeté, la suppression de toute amnistie et de toute grâce, l'augmentation des peines planchers, la fin de l'excuse de minorité, auront un effet d'exemplarité et que la délinquance diminuera est totalement inexact et a uniquement pour but de faire accroire qu'il y a d'un côté, le bien et, de l'autre, le mal et qu'il ne convient pas de réparer le mal

mais de l'éloigner de la société bien pensante dans la nuit noire des prisons. Ce qui n'empêchera pas, bien évidemment, la délinquance d'augmenter.

 

Les humanistes ne peuvent que s'inquiéter d'une politique judiciaire qui répondrait d'abord à la volonté répressive de l'instinct populaire pour résoudre sa peur avant de répondre à la seule question, à notre sens, digne de l'humanisme : lutter contre la délinquance en répondant aux causes structurelles, fondamentales de cette délinquance.

L'individualisation des peines, l'humanisation des traitements, la prévention et les droits de la défense sont les fondamentaux du système judiciaire humaniste et républicain. Même contre l'opinion publique, il faut toujours les réaffirmer.